NFL Football Intelligence – The Wisdom of 3

No, I’m not talking about the clustering of three celebrities who seem to pass away at a time. I’m referring to an extremely important concept that ultimately will help you make more intelligent wagers against the betting line in professional football. In fact, if you consider this concept along with your regular weekly picks, you’ll find that by season’s end you will have beaten the spread several additional times. Compelling, don’t you think?

Refer to the 3-column table below that lists Point Difference, Frequencyเว็บหลัก ufabet ทางเข้า and Percent for 2,386 NFL Football games from the year 2000 through 2008. Point Difference refers to the loser’s score subtracted from the winner’s score. Frequency is the number of times a Point Difference has occurred over the same time period. Percent is merely the Frequency for a particular Point Difference divided by the total number of games, 2,386. The list is ordered from highest to lowest Percent.

For example, within the 6th row under the heading, “Point Difference” you will see the number “14.” Within the same row, in the column labeled “Frequency,” there is the number “110,” which refers to the number of times over the last 9 seasons that this Point Difference occurred. The last column in the same row refers to the percent of the time this has occurred, or, 4.6% of the time.

Notice that the most common Point Difference between a winning and losing team is 3 points. In fact, this occurs a whopping 16% of the time! That’s nearly 1 in 6 games, or on average, twice each week that this will happen. Why is that important? It means that you need to shop exhaustively for point spreads to make sure you find a spread that is the most to your advantage. You must make sure that you never give 3½ points, but always try to get it. Similarly, you must always try to give 2½ points! Half-point losses occur around the number “3” more than you remember.